The farmers are the key problem,

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gh Vietnam coffee price spooks Asian exporters

Reuters 2 March 2011



Record domestic coffee prices in Vietnam have spooked exporters struggling to secure supply as farmers fail to honour contracts, while demand from local roasters is stirring up trade in Indonesia, dealers said on Friday. Many farmers in Vietnam, the world's largest robusta producer, refused to deliver beans to exporters after domestic prices rallied to an all-time high of 46 million dong ($2,205) a tonne, creating artificial tightness in the market.

Vietnamese beans were offered at discounts of $100 to $120 a tonne to London's May contract , smaller than discounts of $140 to $150 quoted last week. “I think half of the exporters are trying to fulfill the contracts from the previous crop. The farmers are the key problem,” said a dealer in Singapore. They don't even care if you want to sue them in court. They just don't want to sell their coffee even after you remind them that they had signed a contract a few months ago to sell beans at certain level, he added.

Vietnam's 2010-11 output rose 2% from the previous season, slightly below past estimates, with some traders citing smaller beans as a reason for their downward revisions, a Reuters poll showed.



HSBC: a fanfare for Vietnam

By Ben Bland, Financial Times, 3 March 2011



HSBC has stuck its head above the parapet to predict that Vietnam’s troubled economy will turn around this year and foreign investors will return after the government unveiled a raft of proposals to tighten monetary and fiscal policy. Economist Sherman Chan argued in a note on Friday that policy makers were heading in the right direction “after years of impressive but arguably unsustainable growth”, which have led to high inflation, a wide trade deficit and a persistently weak currency. Others, however, are less impressed. Chan said recent measures, such as a large devaluation of the currency, an increase in inter-bank lending rates, a lower target for credit growth and reductions in spending, showed the government’s belated determination to tackle fundamental economic imbalances.



“The economy should enter a new, more sustainable trajectory in 2011,” she wrote, predicting that foreign investors, some of whom have been scared away by ongoing turbulence, would return towards the end of this year: “Vietnam is now at a critical stage in terms of restoring confidence. Thankfully, the previously murky policy stance is gradually becoming clear after the National Congress in January. Although there were no substantial changes in the leadership, with the prime minister retaining his position, the reshuffle of other roles and confirmation of the nomination line-up seem to have helped on the policymaking front. The country has now taken welcome steps in improving economic stability and steering towards sustainable growth.” Chan predicted that monetary and fiscal tightening would have a minimal impact on growth, nudging down HSBC’s GDP forecast for 2011 to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent and for 2012 to 7.4 per cent from 7.8 per cent. She forecast that annual inflation, currently at 12.3 per cent, would fall to single digits by the end of the year, averaging 9.9 per cent in 2011.



While investors and economists have welcomed the recent policy announcements, many are less enthusiastic about the government’s ability to follow through on its promises. “The government is making the right noises about stabilising the economy, but this seems more like crisi
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